INTERNATIONAL: Indus Waters Dilemma: PAK Expert Warns of Cost and Complexity in Blocking Treaty Flow
Strategic Challenges in Water Diversion
Pakistani researcher Mohammad Usman has stated that any attempt by India to completely obstruct water flow to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty would require massive infrastructural capabilities and long-term planning.
Speaking at a conference hosted by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) in Karachi, Usman emphasized that the technical and financial challenges of such a move would be immense, possibly costing billions of dollars and taking several years to execute.
Impact of Upstream Alteration
Usman pointed out that India’s geographical position upstream on the Indus River provides it with leverage but also imposes significant limitations. He warned that attempting to block or divert water flow at full volume would result in flooding in India’s own upper river basins.
Conversely, withholding water during dry seasons could severely impact Pakistan’s agriculture, particularly its farmers, by reducing water availability and affecting crop yields.
Geopolitical Implications: A Ripple Effect
The researcher drew attention to the potential geopolitical consequences of such actions. “If India, as an upstream country, chooses to block water, then China—situated upstream of India on the Brahmaputra—could employ the same strategy,” Usman noted.
He highlighted the importance of setting a precedent based on cooperation rather than unilateral action, warning that retaliatory hydrological politics could lead to instability across the region.
PIIA Chair Advocates Inclusive Dialogue
PIIA Chairperson Dr. Masuma Hasan urged that discussions around the Indus Waters Treaty and India-Pakistan water diplomacy should involve diverse perspectives, especially from the youth.
She emphasized the need for inclusive dialogue in light of the rising tensions and recent confrontations between the two nations. Dr. Hasan underlined that sustainable water-sharing strategies must be built on mutual trust, transparency, and public engagement.
Background on the Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, governs the distribution of the Indus River and its tributaries between India and Pakistan. It remains one of the most enduring water-sharing agreements globally, despite periodic bilateral disputes.
The recent diplomatic strains have reignited conversations around the treaty’s relevance and the possibilities of renegotiation or technical alterations.